Predicting The Future
A good chunk of the work we do at Singularity University is teaching you frameworks to help you make sense of exponentially accelerating technologies.
The simple question of: “What does Moore’s Law, which states that the count of transistors on a square inch of an integrated circuit doubles every two years, mean for my business in three years?” is a truly provocative question if taken seriously.
150,000 years of evolution had us growing up in a mostly linearly progressing world. You wanted to bring in the harvest twice as fast? You double the amount of people harvesting.
Technology doesn’t work that way. It grows exponentially. Which is the reason why your smartphone is now way more powerful than the computer you had on your desk just a few years ago.
A question I get asked over and over again is: “How do I take this and apply it to my own business?”
Here’s a simple hack: Take whatever you’re doing and dissect it into it’s individual parts. That could be the individual hardware components you’re using in your product, pieces of software, platforms you use, etc. Now look at each piece and ask yourself: Knowing what I know today about the way this particular technology evolves — what will this piece of tech look like in three years. Once you’ve done this for all pieces put it all back together and you’ll get a pretty clear picture of the (exponential) future of your product.