Knowledge is Not Intuition
For a while now I start my “Exponential Disruption” talk with the note that I want to get the participants to “feel” exponential change, not just intellectually understand it.
Early in my talk, I explain the power of exponentials by speaking about Moore’s Law (“… the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years.”) which, of course, most people know and may even be able to cite by heart. It’s the reason you feel the urge to buy a new mobile phone every other year (latest) as your old model feels dated.
But knowledge and intuition are two things.
If an integrated circuit doubles in price/performance every two years — how much better is your phone in ten years from now? And remember — the iPhone is just ten years old.
Your instinct will (likely) betray you. Do the math — and you might be surprised how much better the machines which surround us will be. As exponential growth in price/performance is all around us these days you do well in training your mind to feel exponentials or, at least, give you the warning to do the math and not rely on your outdated, linear understanding of the world.